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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills will be rolling out backup QB Josh Allen in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
  • Dawson Knox's 22.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 16.1.
  • In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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