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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-182/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects Dawson Knox to earn 4.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • While Dawson Knox has been responsible for 10.0% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Buffalo's pass game this week at 16.0%.
  • The Bills offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This year, the strong Eagles defense has conceded a paltry 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.
  • As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Philadelphia's unit has been fantastic this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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