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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -142.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • While Dawson Knox has garnered 6.6% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in Buffalo's offense in this week's game at 13.5%.
  • The Bills offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
  • Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 51.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) generally correlate with lessened passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher ground volume.
  • Dawson Knox ranks as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, completing a measly 70.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 20th percentile.

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