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Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-143).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.3% pass rate.Dawson Knox has run a route on 66.2% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.In this week's contest, Dawson Knox is forecasted by the projection model to slot into the 75th percentile among TEs with 4.1 targets.The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, New York's collection of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the 9th-worst in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Bills, who are a massive favorite by 15.5 points.The projections expect the Bills to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Giants, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.Dawson Knox's play as a receiver has worsened this season, compiling a measly 2.2 adjusted receptions vs 3.2 last season.Dawson Knox's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 74.5% to 61.6%.
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