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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • This year, the porous Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has allowed a staggering 88.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the highest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.1 per game) this year.
  • Dawson Knox has posted substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (14.0) this year than he did last year (21.0).
  • Dawson Knox's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 70.5% to 65.9%.

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