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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-114/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
  • The predictive model expects Dawson Knox to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack in this week's contest (12.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).
  • The Bills O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • Since the start of last season, the deficient Falcons defense has given up the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a massive 5.41 YAC.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are forecasted by the projections to run only 62.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the league.
  • Dawson Knox has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (11.0 per game) than he did last year (20.0 per game).
  • Dawson Knox's 9.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season marks a significant decline in his receiving skills over last season's 21.0 mark.

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