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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.

Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

This year, the anemic New England Patriots defense has been torched for a massive 57.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 9th-most in the league.

The New England Patriots pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency against tight ends this year, conceding 9.17 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.

The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Dawson Knox's 42.7% Route Participation Rate this season represents a noteable decline in his passing offense volume over last season's 54.6% rate.

Dawson Knox has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (11.0 per game) than he did last year (20.0 per game).

More Dawson Knox Player Props

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