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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The Saints defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season.

The Saints defense has been gouged for the 7th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (55.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has shown weak efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, conceding 8.69 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a huge 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bills since the start of last season (only 56.0 per game on average).

Dawson Knox's 44.5% Route Participation% this year illustrates an impressive decrease in his passing attack workload over last year's 54.6% figure.

Dawson Knox's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 70.5% to 66.7%.

More Dawson Knox Player Props

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