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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
  • While Dawson Knox has earned 7.0% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Buffalo's pass game in this week's contest at 12.0%.
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • With an impressive 9.3 adjusted yards per target (85th percentile) this year, Dawson Knox ranks as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the league.
  • When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Houston's group of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 10th-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the most sluggish paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
  • Dawson Knox's 65.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a noteworthy decrease in his pass-catching ability over last season's 70.5% figure.
  • Dawson Knox's ability to grind out extra yardage has worsened this season, accumulating a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.27 rate last season.

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