Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-150/+120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.8 plays per game.
Dawson Knox has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (33.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Dawson Knox has compiled many fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (44.0).

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