Dawson Knox Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+278/-475).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -473 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -475.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (12.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.8% in games he has played).
Dawson Knox has totaled a colossal 33.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among TEs.
Dawson Knox's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 72.3% to 82.0%.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Dawson Knox's 16.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 29.6.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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