Dawson Knox Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+223/-353).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +300 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +223.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Dawson Knox grades out in the 81st percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.25 per game.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Completion% in the NFL (81.1%) vs. TEs this year (81.1%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.54 per game this year.
The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
Dawson Knox has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
Dawson Knox's 25.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 30.9.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

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