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Davis Mills Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

Davis Mills Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1150/-1250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -3100 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1250.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans will be forced to utilize backup QB Davis Mills in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Texans being a -6-point underdog this week.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Texans to pass on 61.9% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league in the red zone (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Houston Texans.

The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.

Davis Mills rates as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a 59.0% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 23rd percentile.

With a fantastic rate of 0.25 rushing TDs per game (92nd percentile), Davis Mills rates among the best rushing quarterbacks in football this year.

This year, the stout Bills defense has conceded a meager 1.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-best rate in the league.

This year, the weak Buffalo Bills run defense has been torched for a colossal 1.70 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the worst rate in the league.

More Davis Mills Player Props

Davis Mills TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

Davis Mills Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12