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Davis Mills

Davis Mills Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Davis Mills Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1300/-2000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1700 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2000.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Texans may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup quarterback Davis Mills.
  • With a 61.6% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in football in this setting has been the Texans.
  • The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The Houston Texans have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
  • This year, the deficient Tennessee Titans defense has been torched for a massive 77.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Texans are a heavy 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 6th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Tennessee Titans, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.4 per game) this year.
  • With a subpar 57.8% Adjusted Completion% (19th percentile) this year, Davis Mills stands as one of the least on-target QBs in the league.
  • With an impressive ratio of 0.14 TDs on the ground per game (76th percentile), Davis Mills rates as one of the best rushing QBs in football since the start of last season.

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