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Davis Mills

Davis Mills TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Davis Mills TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Texans may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup quarterback Davis Mills.
  • With a 61.6% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in football in this setting has been the Texans.
  • The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The Houston Texans have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
  • This year, the deficient Tennessee Titans defense has been torched for a massive 77.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Texans are a heavy 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 6th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Tennessee Titans, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.4 per game) this year.
  • With a subpar 57.8% Adjusted Completion% (19th percentile) this year, Davis Mills stands as one of the least on-target QBs in the league.

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