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Davis Mills

Davis Mills TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans

Davis Mills TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+178/-258).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -214 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -258.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

The Chicago Bears defense has conceded the 8th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.74 per game since the start of last season.

The Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the 6th-worst group of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 10th-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 59.7 plays per game.

The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 31.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 9th-least of all quarterbacks.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.

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