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Davis Mills

Davis Mills Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans

Davis Mills Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have run for the 5th-most yards in football (135 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season.

The Chicago Bears linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 10th-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 59.7 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to earn 1.5 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.

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