Davis Mills Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 2:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have run for the 5th-most yards in football (135 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 10th-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 59.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to earn 1.5 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.

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