Davis Mills Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

New York Giants vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Davis Mills's rushing efficiency has been refined this season, accumulating 3.61 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 2.28 mark last season.
The New York Giants defense owns the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding 5.25 yards-per-carry.
The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in football this year in regard to run defense.
The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to earn 1.6 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 6th-least of all quarterbacks.

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