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Davis Mills

Davis Mills Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 211.5 (-108/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 210.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 211.5 @ -108.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Texans will be forced to utilize backup QB Davis Mills in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • A throwing game script is suggested by the Texans being a -6-point underdog this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Texans to pass on 61.9% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.
  • Davis Mills rates as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a 59.0% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 23rd percentile.
  • This year, the daunting Buffalo Bills defense has allowed a puny 184.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 2nd-best in the league.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in football versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year (67.1% Adjusted Completion%).

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