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Davis Mills

Davis Mills Carries
Player Prop Week 10

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Davis Mills Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 5th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans this year (a whopping 60.2 per game on average).
  • The projections expect Davis Mills to be a more important option in his offense's running game in this week's game (12.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.5% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Texans will be forced to start backup QB Davis Mills in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • With a 35.9% rate of rushing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 6th-least run-centric offense in the league has been the Houston Texans.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see only 129.3 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • In tallying a puny 0.7 rush attempts per game since the start of last season, Davis Mills places among the bottom QBs in the NFL (11th percentile) when talking about ground game usage.

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