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David Sills

David Sills Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
David Sills Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+4000/-4400).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +4000 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +4000.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • The Falcons have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
  • When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.
  • This year, the poor Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed a monstrous 71.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the worst rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the least pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 56.9% pass rate.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are projected by the projection model to call only 61.9 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
  • With a low 0.0% Red Zone Target Share (1st percentile) this year, David Sills stands as one of the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in the NFL.
  • David Sills has posted a puny 9.0 air yards per game this year: just 22nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.

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