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David Sills

David Sills Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
David Sills Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+475/-600).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +490 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +475.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
  • The model projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.25 seconds per play.
  • The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • While David Sills has garnered 9.8% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Atlanta's offense near the end zone in this game at 16.2%.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Falcons grades out as the 4th-best in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the least pass-heavy offense in football (55.3% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Falcons.
  • David Sills rates in just the 22nd percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a weak 12.6 figure this year.
  • With a bad 43.3% Adjusted Catch Rate (10th percentile) this year, David Sills rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among WRs.
  • This year, the formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered a feeble 62.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 6th-smallest rate in the league.
  • The opposing side have rushed for the 8th-most touchdowns in the league (1.15 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.

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