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David Sills

David Sills Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
David Sills Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+510/-630).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +495 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +510.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Falcons, who are heavy -7-point underdogs.
  • The leading projections forecast the Falcons as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.17 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (39.5 per game) this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in football in the red zone (51.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • David Sills slots into just the 21st percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a weak 10.8 mark this year.
  • David Sills profiles as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league, catching just 53.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile among wideouts
  • The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (59%) vs. WRs this year (59.0%).

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