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David Sills Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1100/-1500).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1150 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1500.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-most in the league.As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Falcons grades out as the 9th-best in football this year.This year, the anemic Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded a colossal 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-biggest rate in the league.This year, the tough Indianapolis Colts run defense has allowed a mere 0.67 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 9th-smallest rate in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 8th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 46.1% red zone run rate.The leading projections forecast the Falcons to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.David Sills has been has not been looked to very often his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which places him in the 1st percentile when it comes to WRs.When talking about air yards, David Sills grades out in just the 25th percentile among wide receivers this year, averaging just 11.0 per game.David Sills's 6.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) grades out among the worst in the league: 14th percentile for WRs.
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