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David Sills

David Sills Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
David Sills Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.2 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The predictive model expects David Sills to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game in this game (6.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (1.1% in games he has played).
  • The Falcons O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
  • The Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (72.1%) versus wide receivers this year (72.1%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Falcons are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to pass on 56.0% of their downs: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 122.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.

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