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David Sills Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -135.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -4.5-point underdogs.The model projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.25 seconds per play.The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The projections expect David Sills to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game in this game (13.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.1% in games he has played).As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Falcons grades out as the 4th-best in football this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At the present time, the least pass-heavy offense in football (55.3% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Falcons.With a paltry 1.0 adjusted receptions per game (13th percentile) this year, David Sills stands among the worst pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.With a bad 43.3% Adjusted Catch Rate (10th percentile) this year, David Sills rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among WRs.This year, the formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered a feeble 62.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 6th-smallest rate in the league.When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the best in the league.
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