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David Sills Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-118/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Falcons are a 5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.The Falcons have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.0 plays per game.When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.This year, the feeble Patriots pass defense has conceded a staggering 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-biggest rate in the league.The Patriots pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus wide receivers this year, giving up 9.14 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in football (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projection model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.With a meager 2.3% Target% (13th percentile) this year, David Sills rates among the wideouts with the highest volume in the league.David Sills has accrued a paltry 9.0 air yards per game this year: just 21st percentile among wide receivers.As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's unit has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 9th-best in football.
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