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David Njoku

David Njoku Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Cleveland Browns vs Minnesota Vikings

David Njoku Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+500/-700).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -620 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -700.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs this week, implying more of a focus on passing than their normal game plan.

The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.22 seconds per play.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

The model projects David Njoku to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this week's contest (19.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).

When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Minnesota's collection of DTs has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football (62.6% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Browns.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Vikings, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 27.2 per game) this year.

After averaging 53.0 air yards per game last year, David Njoku has fallen off this year, now averaging 29.0 per game.

David Njoku's 27.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 48.6.

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Cleveland Browns ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.

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