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David Njoku

David Njoku Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
David Njoku Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+550/-660).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -600 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -660.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Browns, who are big -7.5-point underdogs.
  • With a 59.5% rate of throwing the ball in the red zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in this regard has been the Browns.
  • Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.6 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The Cleveland Browns have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
  • The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.1 per game) this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Browns to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 24-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher run volume.
  • David Njoku has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (32.0 per game) than he did last year (53.0 per game).
  • David Njoku's 30.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 48.6.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Browns ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.

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