David Njoku Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 132.9 total plays called: the highest number among all games this week.
The Cleveland Browns have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 66.7 plays per game.
This week, David Njoku is anticipated by our trusted projection set to rank in the 89th percentile among TEs with 5.8 targets.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Browns profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.
With an exceptional 4.3 adjusted catches per game (89th percentile) this year, David Njoku rates among the best pass-catching tight ends in football.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.3% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, David Njoku has been utilized much less in his offense's air attack.
David Njoku's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 77.2% to 73.6%.
The Steelers pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.2%) vs. TEs this year (69.2%).
The Steelers linebackers project as the 3rd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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