David Njoku Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+112/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
David Njoku has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (80.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (54.1%).
THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to accumulate 5.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 49.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (59.6%) versus tight ends this year (59.6%).

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