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David Njoku

David Njoku Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers

David Njoku Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Browns are an enormous 7-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Browns have called the most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.6 plays per game.

The Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.

The predictive model expects David Njoku to garner 5.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The leading projections forecast David Njoku to be a less important option in his offense's pass attack in this week's contest (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.4% in games he has played).

David Njoku grades out as one of the worst TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.54 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 22nd percentile.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.97 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Green Bay's group of safeties has been outstanding since the start of last season, profiling as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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