David Njoku Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 11, 2025

Updated Nov 16, 2025 8:57 PM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-112/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Browns, who are big -7.5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.6 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.1 per game) this year.
The projections expect David Njoku to accrue 4.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Browns to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 24-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher run volume.
David Njoku has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (32.0 per game) than he did last year (53.0 per game).
David Njoku's 30.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 48.6.
In regards to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Browns ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.

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