David Njoku Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 132.9 total plays called: the highest number among all games this week.
The Cleveland Browns have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 66.7 plays per game.
This week, David Njoku is anticipated by our trusted projection set to rank in the 89th percentile among TEs with 5.8 targets.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Browns profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.
David Njoku's talent in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this season, totaling 8.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 5.22 rate last season.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.3% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
David Njoku has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (17.0 per game) than he did last season (45.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, David Njoku has been utilized much less in his offense's air attack.
David Njoku's 43.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year marks a substantial regression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 50.0 rate.
David Njoku's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 77.2% to 73.6%.

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