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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
David Montgomery Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+117/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • When it comes to air yards, David Montgomery grades out in the towering 78th percentile among RBs this year, totaling an impressive 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • David Montgomery rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among RBs, hauling in a remarkable 100.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  • This year, the porous Chiefs defense has given up a whopping 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-largest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 6th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 46.7% red zone run rate.
  • At the moment, the most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Lions.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.2 per game) this year.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Lions profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • The receiving touchdown column reads "0" on the back of David Montgomery's trading card this year.

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