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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions

David Montgomery Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-186/+152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -176 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -186.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the league.

David Montgomery rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to RBs, completing a remarkable 100.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 99th percentile.

The Bengals pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (91%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (91.0%).

The Bengals defense has allowed the most TDs through the air in the league to RBs: 0.75 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a massive favorite by 10.5 points.

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 52.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Lions to be the 10th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 45.5% red zone run rate.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

While David Montgomery has been responsible for 25.0% of his team's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Detroit's rushing attack near the goal line in this week's contest at 41.1%.

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