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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
David Montgomery Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+166/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -210.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Lions being an enormous -10.5-point underdog this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in football vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year (74.2% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the weak Chicago Bears defense has yielded a colossal 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing running backs: the 5th-biggest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
  • David Montgomery's 7.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 12.9.
  • The Lions offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • David Montgomery's 91.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a noteworthy decline in his receiving talent over last year's 97.9% figure.
  • The receiving TD field reads "0" on the back of David Montgomery's trading card this year.

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