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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
David Montgomery Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+134/-158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +134 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +134.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the model to run 66.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
  • David Montgomery has notched a colossal 1.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile among running backs. (This may not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Minnesota's DT corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Lions are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
  • David Montgomery's 7.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 12.9.
  • The Lions O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • David Montgomery's 90.5% Adjusted Catch% this year shows a remarkable diminishment in his receiving ability over last year's 97.9% mark.

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