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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Los Angeles Rams vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
David Montgomery Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+172/-196).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -196.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 61.8% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 8th-most in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Lions rank as the 5th-most run-focused team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 53.9% red zone run rate.
  • The Detroit offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
  • David Montgomery's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 97.8% to 90.6%.
  • With an atrocious ratio of only 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), David Montgomery has been among the weakest receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to RBs this year.
  • With a terrific rate of 0.50 rushing touchdowns per game (88th percentile), David Montgomery has been among the best rushing TD-scorers in the league this year.

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