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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
David Montgomery Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-166).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +158 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to pass on 60.8% of their downs: the 7th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 9th-most in football.
  • This year, the tough Green Bay Packers run defense has yielded a feeble 0.73 touchdowns on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.
  • With a 54.0% rate of running the ball in the red zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-most run-centric offense in the league in these situations has been the Lions.
  • David Montgomery's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 97.8% to 89.1%.
  • This year, David Montgomery has not caught any touchdowns through the air this year.
  • With an exceptional rate of 0.42 touchdowns on the ground per game (86th percentile), David Montgomery has been among the top rushing TD-scorers in football this year.

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