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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
David Montgomery Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+111/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • David Montgomery has garnered a staggering 0.3% of his team's air yards this year: 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in the NFL versus the Commanders defense this year (74.2% Adjusted Completion%).
  • As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Washington's group of LBs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are overwhelmingly favored by 8 points.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions as the 5th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused offense in football near the goal line (47.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Detroit Lions.
  • At the moment, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Detroit Lions.
  • David Montgomery's 85.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a substantial diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last year's 97.8% mark.

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