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David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-102/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions since the start of last season (a massive 59.3 per game on average).The Lions have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.Out of all RBs, David Montgomery ranks in the 78th percentile for carries this year, making up 41.0% of the workload in his team's ground game.With a remarkable total of 60.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (84th percentile), David Montgomery rates among the best pure runners in the NFL since the start of last season.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.The projections expect the Lions as the least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 39.6% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.Our trusted projections expect the Lions to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.Since the start of last season, the formidable Ravens run defense has yielded a mere 82.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the fewest in the league.
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