David Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2025

Updated Jan 5, 2026 12:27 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
This year, the tough Bears run defense has conceded a meager 5.11 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 27th-lowest rate in the league.
The Chicago defensive tackles rank as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Lions being an enormous -10.5-point underdog this week.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to run on 39.7% of their downs: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
After comprising 46.5% of his offense's rushing play calls last season, David Montgomery has played a smaller part in the running game this season, now making up just 35.5%.
David Montgomery has run for many fewer adjusted yards per game (42.0) this season than he did last season (62.0).

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