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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
  • The Lions have been the 10th-most run-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 42.0% run rate.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to run 67.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • David Montgomery's rushing effectiveness (4.98 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (78th percentile among running backs).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • After taking on 46.5% of his offense's run game usage last year, David Montgomery has played a smaller part in the rushing attack this year, now taking on only 35.6%.
  • David Montgomery has run for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (45.0) this year than he did last year (62.0).
  • As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Pittsburgh's collection of DEs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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