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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-118/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -103.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.
  • The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to run on 39.2% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • David Montgomery has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (45.0) this year than he did last year (62.0).
  • The Packers defense boasts the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing just 3.81 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
  • As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Green Bay's collection of safeties has been terrific this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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