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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions last year (a staggering 59.6 per game on average).

The Detroit Lions have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.

The model projects David Montgomery to accumulate 10.8 carries in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Among all running backs, David Montgomery grades out in the 80th percentile for rush attempts last year, taking on 45.7% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack.

With a remarkable rate of 62.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (85th percentile), David Montgomery places among the best pure rushers in the league last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Detroit Lions to run on 41.0% of their downs: the 10th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Packers defense has produced the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games last year, conceding just 4.07 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

The Green Bay Packers defensive ends rank as the 8th-best DE corps in the league last year in regard to run defense.

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