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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+132/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

In this week's contest, David Montgomery is anticipated by the predictive model to land in the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.1 targets.

David Montgomery rates as one of the best running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 2.7 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.

David Montgomery profiles as one of the best possession receivers in football among running backs, catching a stellar 98.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 100th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

The model projects the Lions to be the 11th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 57.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The model projects this game to have the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.04 seconds per play accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game against the Bears defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the league.

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