David Montgomery Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 22, 2025 12:27 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-111/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to run 67.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
This year, the porous Steelers pass defense has surrendered a staggering 87.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 3rd-biggest rate in the league.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's collection of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 9th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
The Lions have been the 10th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.0% pass rate.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Lions profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.
David Montgomery's receiving performance has worsened this year, compiling a mere 1.4 adjusted catches compared to 2.6 last year.
David Montgomery's 90.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a meaningful regression in his receiving skills over last year's 97.8% rate.

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