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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+180/-265).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -265.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
  • In this contest, David Montgomery is projected by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.0 targets.
  • The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has been torched for the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (84.9%) versus RBs this year (84.9%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Lions are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Detroit Lions grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year.
  • David Montgomery's play as a receiver has worsened this season, accumulating just 1.5 adjusted receptions vs 2.6 last season.
  • David Montgomery's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 97.8% to 90.0%.

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