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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-106/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -106.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
  • David Montgomery rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to RBs, completing a remarkable 100.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 99th percentile.
  • With an impressive 8.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (90th percentile) since the start of last season, David Montgomery stands as one of the top running backs in the pass game in football in picking up extra yardage.
  • The Bengals pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (91%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (91.0%).
  • Since the start of last season, the deficient Bengals defense has surrendered the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing running backs: a monstrous 7.39 yards.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a massive favorite by 10 points.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • David Montgomery's 8.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year shows a noteable decline in his pass-catching skills over last year's 23.0 rate.
  • David Montgomery's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this year, compiling just 6.27 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.80 rate last year.

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